Only 19 percent of those surveyed said that the state would be better if its population increases. Growth is not a goal for most Californians: Asked to look ahead 10 years, 35 percent of respondents believe it would be better if the population decreases significantly and 46 percent want it to stay about the same.In these polarized times, there is a surprisingly small gap between the percentage of Democrats (21 percent) and Republicans (30 percent) seriously considering moving.Middle-class Californians making incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 are the most concerned about the state of California today as well as its future.Those living in parts of the state that have not been part of recent economic expansions, including the Central Valley and northern counties outside of the Bay Area, are most likely to contemplate moving.Spanish speakers, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and younger Californians are more optimistic, while middle-class Californians, white respondents, older residents and Republicans are more pessimistic. By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, Californians respond that they still believe in the “California Dream” (that it’s a great place to live and raise a family) but belief in that dream depends on demographics, economic status and partisan affiliation.Other findings in the UC San Diego survey of more than 3,000 respondents include: This finding is consistent with research that UC San Diego did on Google search trends, which found no increase over the course of the pandemic in how frequently Californians searched terms such as “moving company” or “U-Haul.” Twenty-three percent of California’s voters reported that they were seriously considering leaving California, which is slightly lower than the 24 percent found in a 2019 survey conducted by UC Berkeley. UC San Diego recently conducted a survey that found the percentage of Californians who plan to leave the state has remained static over the past two years. “Sliced and diced by geography, race, income and other demographic factors, our efforts have produced a clearer picture of who perceives California as the Golden State versus a failed state. The empirical data will be, at once, disappointing to those who want to write California’s obituary, as well as a call to action for policymakers to address the challenges that have caused some to lose faith in the California Dream.” No big changes on residents’ plans to leave the state To help inform those important public discussions, UC assembled many of the state’s top researchers to provide a data-driven understanding of California’s population trends,” said UC Regent John A. “From housing affordability to post-pandemic recovery, California is faced with solving a daunting number of existential challenges. Census, consumer credit histories, home ownership rates, venture capital investments, and information from the Franchise Tax Board.
The research draws on many data sources to investigate the so-called exodus: public opinion data, the U.S. The project includes studies conducted by scholars at UC Berkeley, UCLA, UC San Diego, as well as Cornell University and Stanford University. California’s economy attracts as much venture capital as all other states combined.įormed in fall 2020, the UC-led project is a research consortium designed to bring a fact-based, empirical approach to California’s population patterns, helping to inform state policy and public knowledge.There is no evidence of “millionaire flight” from California.Residents are moving out of state, but not at unusual rates.The majority of Californians still believe in the “California Dream.”.This research is part of a larger, multi-institution research project led by UC to assess whether there is in fact a “Cal exodus.” Despite California losing a congressional seat for the first time in history due to slow population growth and some high-profile technology companies and billionaires leaving the state, there is no evidence of an abnormal increase in residents planning to move out of the state, according to the results of a new survey released today (July 7) by the University of California.
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